The World Recalculates

The Mecca Agreement Advances in the International Press, Israel Reads It with Concern, and Iran Pretends to Be Reassured.. While Markets Link the Fate of Energy to Clarity over the Position in Hormuz

Monitoring and Analysis | Strategic Media Department – BETH Agency
Supervision: Abdullah Al-Omairah

Capitals | BETH

The attention of the global press is divided among the war in the region, the escalating tension in Ukraine, the new U.S. tariffs, and movements in energy markets. However, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been at the center of several of these files, not as a country affected by what is happening around it, but as a power working to rebuild its security and political position.

At the forefront of international coverage, the joint defense agreement among the Kingdom, Türkiye, and Pakistan has emerged as a transformation that goes beyond military cooperation and points to the beginning of the formation of a regional security structure that does not depend entirely on the United States.

Washington.. Hormuz Awaits the Decision

The American press focused on the new conditions Iran has set for opening the Strait of Hormuz and its refusal to move to direct negotiations with the United States.

Coverage addressed the exchange of messages through intermediaries, amid declining optimism over the possibility of announcing a full and rapid opening of the strait, despite Iran and Oman nearing completion of the technical arrangements for the maritime routes.

In the face of Iranian intransigence, the U.S. administration is trying to show that it is not compelled to accept Tehran’s conditions; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed the future importance of Hormuz, pointing to the possibility of developing pipelines and alternative routes.

These statements do not reflect the current navigational reality as much as they carry a long-term message: If Iran continues to use the strait as a weapon, the world will move toward reducing its need for it.

This reading is of direct importance to the Kingdom because it strengthens the strategic value of export lines extending to the Red Sea and opens the way for broader projects to transport energy and trade away from maritime chokepoints.

London.. The Mecca Agreement Advances

The British press placed the defense agreement among the Kingdom, Türkiye, and Pakistan among the region’s most significant transformations, linking its timing to growing doubts over the old security order’s ability to protect regional interests.

The phrase “the post-American Middle East” appeared in some analyses, indicating that the countries of the region are no longer waiting for a single external umbrella, but have begun forming deterrence networks and alliances that bring together the most capable and influential powers.

This reading treats the agreement as the beginning of a new security architecture, not as a temporary response to Iran; bringing together the Kingdom, Türkiye, and Pakistan creates a political, military, and economic bloc whose influence extends beyond the Gulf.

The British financial press also focused on Iran’s intransigence over Hormuz and the leadership change within its Supreme National Security Council, considering Washington to be trapped between the option of escalation and accepting an agreement with conditions closer to Iranian demands.

Tehran.. Reassurance That Carries Concern

Iran said it sees no reason to fear the defense agreement among the Kingdom, Türkiye, and Pakistan, and considered it a reflection of the region’s countries moving toward relying on their own capabilities instead of foreign powers.

But the speed of the Iranian response, and the attempt to set political conditions for accepting the agreement, reveal that Tehran is studying it carefully.

Iran welcomed it as long as it remains inclusive and does not target regional parties, and it attempted to direct its function toward confronting Israel, rather than deterring Iran itself or its arms.

When a state rushes to say that it does not fear a new alliance, it implicitly acknowledges that it has begun calculating its impact.

More importantly, Tehran realizes that the agreement brings together countries with complementary capabilities: the Kingdom’s political and economic weight, Türkiye’s military industry, and Pakistan’s missile and nuclear capabilities.

Tel Aviv.. Concern over the New Power

The Israeli press devoted extensive coverage to the Mecca Agreement, with some analyses describing it as a development that could change the strategic balance in the Middle East.

The Jerusalem Post focused on the agreement establishing a collective defense mechanism similar, in principle, to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, under which an attack on one state is considered an attack on the other members.

Israeli concern was not limited to the military dimension; it extended to the agreement’s impact on the normalization process and the possibility that it could give the Kingdom broader options and reduce its need for security arrangements linked to the United States or Israel.

Israeli analyses also linked the Kingdom’s entry into the agreement to declining regional trust in Washington and Riyadh’s search for deterrence tools that do not depend on the continuation of the American commitment.

This reading reveals that Israel does not view the agreement solely as an alliance to confront Iran, but as the nucleus of an independent Islamic power that could influence the files of Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, and the regional balance in the future.

Beijing.. Hormuz Changes Demand

An economic reading of oil movements revealed that China sharply reduced its crude imports during June and July, drawing on its strategic reserves to confront disruptions to supplies coming from the Middle East.

Chinese imports averaged around 7.78 million barrels per day, a decline of more than four million barrels per day compared with the prewar average.

This means that China is not merely waiting for Hormuz to reopen; it is managing demand, consuming part of its reserves, and examining the diversification of suppliers and routes.

It is important for the Kingdom that the decline in Chinese demand not be interpreted as a permanent shift away from Middle Eastern oil; it is linked to the conditions of war, higher prices, and disrupted shipping. However, a continuation of the crisis may push Beijing to accelerate the construction of long-term alternatives.

In return, the Kingdom’s possession of export outlets on both the Gulf and the Red Sea gives it an advantage unavailable to many producers and strengthens its value as a partner more capable of securing Asian supplies.

Markets.. News Before Oil

Global stocks rose modestly, while Brent crude prices stabilized near $83.5, as markets awaited details of the Omani-Iranian understanding.

But price movements reveal that investors do not regard the announcement of routes as an opening of the strait; rather, they are waiting for ships to pass, risks to decline, and insurance coverage to return.

The Saudi market recorded a limited rise, while the performance of most Gulf markets remained cautious, indicating that the region has not yet priced in the success or failure of the agreement.

The importance of Hormuz extends from the oil market to central bank decisions; energy stability may ease global inflation, while the failure of the settlement could raise prices and renew pressure on interest rates and growth.

Moscow and Kyiv.. The Energy War

Ukraine expanded its drone attacks inside Russian territory, targeting oil facilities and a refinery in Tatarstan, while Russia announced deaths and injuries in Nizhnekamsk.

In the opposite direction, Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities continued, causing casualties in Kharkiv and other areas.

The extension of targeting deep into Russia’s oil infrastructure indicates that Kyiv seeks to raise the economic cost of the war, rather than merely defending the front lines.

For the Kingdom, the continued targeting of Russian energy adds a new factor to an oil market already unsettled by Hormuz; the simultaneous disruption of Russian and Gulf supplies could lead to greater volatility in prices and shipping routes.

Global Trade.. New Tariffs

The United States continues to expand its tariff policy after imposing new duties on imports from dozens of trading partners, amid expectations that further measures will target strategic sectors such as semiconductors, robotics, and advanced industries.

This policy is pushing companies to bring forward import schedules and alter supply chains, while increasing pressure on countries that depend heavily on the American market.

The reshaping of global trade opens opportunities for the Kingdom to attract industries seeking a stable environment, a location connecting Asia, Europe, and Africa, competitive energy, and a broad regional market.

But benefiting from this requires speed in attracting companies that have already begun searching for production and distribution centers that do not lie directly along the lines of the U.S.-Chinese trade confrontation.

In the Arab Media

The Arab media focused on three interconnected tracks:

• Iran’s intransigence in setting conditions for opening Hormuz.
• The rise of the Mecca Agreement as a new Islamic deterrent force.
• The expansion of the threat from the Gulf to the Red Sea and Yemen.

A trend emerged that views the agreement among the Kingdom, Türkiye, and Pakistan as the beginning of the region’s transition from dependence on external protection to building its security with its own instruments.

In contrast, other readings warned that the agreement’s success will be tested at the first direct threat, and that its value will not be determined by texts alone, but by the establishment of permanent command, coordination, early-warning, and defense cooperation mechanisms.

What Matters to Saudi Arabia

Today’s tour of the global media reveals four principal messages for the Kingdom:

First: The Mecca Agreement has moved beyond the stage of a local announcement and has begun to be read globally as a shift in the balance of power.

Second: Israeli concern is greater than Iranian reassurance because the agreement gives the Kingdom strategic alternatives that do not pass through Washington or Tel Aviv.

Third: The Hormuz crisis enhances the value of Saudi outlets on the Red Sea and pushes the world to think seriously about projects that bypass the strait.

Fourth: The Kingdom has become central to three simultaneous transformations: a new regional security order, the redrawing of energy routes, and the redirection of global supply chains.

BETH’s Eye

The world does not view the Mecca Agreement as a passing response to the war, but as a test of the birth of a new regional power.

Iran says it does not fear it, Israel warns of its impact, and the West links it to declining confidence in the American umbrella.

When capitals differ in their interpretation of an alliance, yet all agree on watching it, this means it has already begun changing calculations.