Reports of preparations for a large-scale operation against the Houthis coincide with an attempt to open a political track; Washington increases its military presence, Hormuz regains part of its traffic, while a U.S.-Iran agreement remains distant

Prepared and Analyzed by | Strategic Media Department – BETH Agency

The war entered its 212th day with Yemen emerging as the front most capable of changing the course of the war during the coming phase.

Circulating reports speak of preparations for a large-scale military operation against the Houthis, aimed at regaining control of strategic positions linked to Bab al-Mandab, securing navigation in the Red Sea, and restoring stability across all Yemeni territory. In parallel, a political track has emerged; an emergency meeting of the countries of the “Makkah Alliance” is expected in Riyadh to discuss developments in Yemen and the region.

Between Washington and Tehran, negotiations remain deadlocked. Trump rejected Iran’s latest offer, while Iran, according to its own narrative, is preparing for U.S. strikes. At the same time, the U.S. military presence in the region continues to grow, including preparations for the deployment of a third aircraft carrier.

In the Strait of Hormuz, liquefied natural gas shipments recorded their highest monthly level since the beginning of the war in September, indicating that the strait is regaining part of its function and gradually reducing the value of its closure as an Iranian negotiating card.

Outlook:
The next phase may be decided in Yemen before Iran.

If the political track succeeds in restraining the Houthis, one of the most significant sources of the war’s expansion will diminish. If it fails, the confrontation could shift toward a broader operation that reshapes the battlefield around Bab al-Mandab.

The question then becomes:

Will the end of the war begin in Hormuz.. or in Bab al-Mandab?