International recognition of the Kingdom’s progress.. IMF expects AI to add 6% to GDP within a decade

BETH | B

The International Monetary Fund praised the progress achieved by the Kingdom in adopting artificial intelligence, confirming that Saudi Arabia has become one of the world’s best-performing countries in e-government and government AI readiness indicators.

The 2026 Article IV Consultation report explained that the Saudi public sector is leading AI adoption, while the use of the technology is accelerating in the private sector and expanding across healthcare, education, financial services, energy and government services.

The Fund estimated that, given the Kingdom’s current levels of preparedness, AI adoption could increase real GDP growth by between 0.1 and 0.4 percentage points annually over the next decade.

Under a more optimistic scenario—based on expanding investment, narrowing the gap with advanced economies and increasing exports of AI services—the annual gain could reach 0.6 percentage points, raising the level of GDP by approximately 6% over ten years.

This means that the 6% figure does not represent an additional annual growth rate, but a potential cumulative increase in the size of the economy over a decade.

High Preparedness

The report attributed Saudi Arabia’s progress to its broad digital transformation, the development of infrastructure and regulations, and the growth of the information and communications technology workforce, in addition to the National Strategy for Data and AI launched by the Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority, SDAIA, in 2020.

It noted that most national targets related to talent and domestic and foreign investment had exceeded the interim targets set for 2025. Artificial intelligence has also become one of the six priority areas under the Public Investment Fund’s strategy for 2026–2030.

The report revealed that approximately 45% of jobs in the Kingdom are highly exposed to the impact of artificial intelligence. Among employed Saudi nationals, the proportion rises to approximately 80%, reflecting their greater presence in administrative and professional occupations and knowledge-intensive sectors.

BETH Analysis

The most important figure is not 6% alone, but where it comes from.

The expected increase will not result merely from selling a new technology, but from raising the productivity of government, hospitals, schools, banks, factories and the energy sector. This transforms artificial intelligence from an independent economic sector into a force that raises the efficiency of the entire economy.

However, the high exposure of Saudi jobs to the technology has two sides: it presents an opportunity to increase productivity and wages and develop professions, while also creating pressure to accelerate reskilling so that artificial intelligence becomes a tool that supports people rather than excludes them.

The Fund also identified challenges related to shortages of specialised talent, limited depth of private-sector investment, data governance, infrastructure financing, energy availability and the possibility that expected demand for data centres may not materialise.

The conclusion is that the Kingdom has moved beyond the stage of preparing for artificial intelligence and entered the stage of measuring its economic return. The next challenge is not possessing the technology, but converting it into productivity, jobs and sustainable added value.