Follow-up & Analysis | B

The trajectory of the U.S.–Israeli war with Iran is approaching a critical juncture, as U.S. President Donald Trump signals that an agreement is near, while Tehran’s response is awaited on a 14-point proposal aimed at ending the war.

Available indicators suggest that the U.S. proposal includes the transfer of approximately 400 kg of highly enriched uranium, with uncertainty surrounding the entity that would receive it, despite earlier discussions of a potential Russian role.

In return, the agreement would involve lifting the naval blockade on Iranian ports, in exchange for ending Iran’s de facto restrictions on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, Trump shared a timeline comparison on Truth Social, noting that the current war lasted 6 weeks, compared to much longer conflicts such as Afghanistan (543 weeks) and Iraq (457 weeks), in a message aimed at highlighting the speed of resolution.

On the diplomatic front, Tehran continues to review the proposal, with expectations that its response will be delivered soon via the Pakistani mediator, which expressed cautious optimism and reaffirmed its commitment to regional stability.

B Analysis

The situation reflects a shift from direct confrontation to an exchange of conditions.

The nuclear file is presented as the entry point for resolution,
navigation as a balancing lever,
and the blockade as a pressure tool until the final moment.

At the same time, Washington seeks to frame the short duration of the war as an achievement,
while Tehran moves cautiously, balancing concessions with preserving influence.

The deal is approaching…
but it will only be signed through a precise balance between power and acceptance.