BETH Analysis

Current Reality

Oil today still represents about one-third of global energy, and it is used not only as fuel but also in vital sectors such as petrochemicals, plastics, fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, and transportation.
Despite the rapid global expansion of renewable energy projects, oil demand continues to grow in continents such as Asia and Africa, while partially declining in Europe and the United States due to environmental policies and the gradual shift toward alternative energy.

Future Outlook

Estimates indicate that renewable energy and hydrogen could account for more than half of the global energy mix by 2050.
The transition to electric vehicles will reduce demand in the transportation sector (the largest consumer of oil), yet heavy industries and petrochemicals remain the most difficult to wean off oil due to the absence of large-scale alternatives.

When Will Phase-Out Happen?

Technically: The world may be able to significantly reduce its dependence on oil by mid-century (2045–2050).

Economically and politically: Complete abandonment is unlikely before the end of the century (2100), given that many developing economies still rely on oil as a primary source of revenue.

Some studies predict that “Peak Oil Demand” will occur between 2030 and 2035, after which demand may gradually decline — but it will not disappear.

Saudi Arabia and the New World

The Kingdom anticipated these shifts early, and Vision 2030 was launched to position Saudi Arabia as an integrated energy powerhouse:

Oil + Gas + Renewables + Green Hydrogen.

Projects such as NEOM, Aramco’s hydrogen initiatives, and ACWA Power consolidate the Kingdom’s role in the post-oil era.
The strategy is not to abandon oil, but rather to “invest in the last barrel wisely”, while building a diversified economy that ensures sustainability.

Statements from the International Energy Agency (IEA)

Demand growth continues until 2040: According to IEA reports, global oil demand will remain on an upward trajectory until 2040, albeit at a slower pace than before. Continued reliance underscores the difficulty of phasing oil out of vital sectors.

Current demand at 100 million barrels per day: Global consumption remains extremely high, reaffirming oil’s position as a cornerstone of economic stability worldwide.

Analysis in Light of These Facts

First: Demand Persists Despite Transitions

The shift toward clean energy will not reduce oil demand as quickly as projected. Sectors such as aviation, heavy industry, and petrochemicals remain heavily dependent on oil, ensuring strong demand well into the next two decades.

Second: Oil as a Fixed Part of the Long-Term Mix

Despite environmental pressures and anti-fossil-fuel policies, global production capacity remains essential for market stability. Even as demand nears its peak, reserves and supply capability will remain strategic levers for producing nations.

Third: A Strategic Window for Saudi Arabia

Maximizing revenues: Sustained demand through 2040 provides the Kingdom with a golden opportunity to maximize economic gains.

Smart partial transition: Completely abandoning oil is unrealistic for now, but continued investment in renewables and hydrogen is essential to secure the future.

Balanced investment: The Kingdom is advancing on a dual track — investing in oil to maximize current returns while channeling resources into alternatives to secure the post-oil economy.

Conclusion

The world will not abandon oil in the near future. Demand will continue to grow until 2040, with current levels approaching 100 million barrels per day.
Oil will remain a cornerstone of the global economy for decades to come, even with the expansion of renewable energy.
As one of the leading producers, the Kingdom has a historic opportunity to balance the benefits of oil today with building an alternative economy for the future.

It is the equation of reaping the present… while preparing for a post-oil world.

🌅 The Sun of Oil Rises Again