Marwa Shaheen - Beirut - Beth:

Seventy-six years of peace the European continent has experienced since the end of the Second World War, which turned it into an endless mass of destruction, as the old continent, after the end of this war, did not miss an opportunity to take any step away from the specter of a new war, from economic cooperation agreements and freedom of movement Which later gave birth to an entity known as the European Union to political and military agreements up to the North Atlantic Treaty or what is known as NATO, in addition to its efforts to bring European peoples closer to each other and to combat all forms of racism and religious or ethnic fanaticism in order to avoid religious and ethnic rivalries Which cost the European continent countless blood and tragedies throughout the ages.

Not enough effort

The phrase “the danger coming from the east” is perhaps the most appropriate phrase to describe the dangers facing the European continent and the Western world, despite the fact that what is known as Western Europe is an oasis of political and security stability, the European East is still waving its threats towards the old continent, and here we are definitely talking On the Russian-Ukrainian crisis.

Prelude to the crisis

If we want to dive into the depths of history, we will always find a close connection between the peoples of Ukraine and Russia due to geographical proximity and convergence of language, religion, customs and traditions. Tsarism, and after the collapse and disintegration of the Soviet Union at the end of the last century, Ukraine became an independent republic in 1991 and a neighbor of the Russian Federation, the heir of the former Soviet Union.

Perhaps this historical overview gives an idea of ​​the causes of the crisis, as the Russian Federation, which possesses enormous military and political capabilities, does not stop trying to restore its old glories, and these expansionist policies of the Russian Republic emerge through its attempts to strengthen and restore its influence in the republics of the Soviet Union. The former, especially the countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

How did the Russian-Ukrainian crisis begin?

In 2013, after Ukraine faced an economic crisis that later led to the outbreak of popular protests that led to the overthrow of the government of President Viktor Yangovich, who is close to the Russians, and this is what Russia considered an attempt to bring about political changes in Ukraine, which has a long border with the Russian Federation and thus paves the way Ukraine later joined the European Union and later to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and thus the Russian Federation finds NATO on the borders of Russian territory and “at the gates of Moscow”, what the Russian government considered at the time a direct threat to Russian national security and responded to these attempts by It invaded the Crimea in 2014 and annexed it to the Russian Federation, which prompted the West to apply high-level economic sanctions on Russia and caused tension in international relations, especially between Russia and the West, in addition to Russia's support for separatist groups loyal to it in Ukraine, specifically in Donbass On the Russian-Ukrainian border, and these armed groups announced the secession of the regions of "Lugansk" and "Donetsk" from Ukraine, which led to the occurrence of a limited war in the Donbass, eastern Ukraine between the Ok government forces Rania and separatist militants backed by Russia, after which the Russian Federation fell under severe economic sanctions, in addition to its exclusion from the Group of Eight (G8).

The evolution of the crisis and its features

During the past few months, there have been many reports and information that talk about Russia's mobilization of its armies on the eastern borders of Ukraine, that is, on the Russian-Ukrainian borders, and estimates of the Russian mobilization have reached nearly 100,000 soldiers in addition to military and technical equipment, which Ukraine and the West considered Russia is preparing for an imminent invasion of Ukrainian territory, while the current Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has stated that there are intelligence reports that Russia is preparing a military attack on Ukraine in late January, i.e. the first month of 2022, in addition to a report by the US Central Intelligence Agency, which raised the classification of the crisis The occurrence of a Russian aggression on the Ukrainian territory from a “possible crisis” to an “inevitable crisis”.

Possible scenarios

Despite the successive statements of Russian officials that the allegations of any Russian intention to invade Ukraine are just baseless allegations, Ukraine and its allies in the West see the opposite, and indeed the discussion and talk has begun about how the Western allies will act in the event of Ukraine being exposed. There are conflicting opinions and views about the readiness of NATO to enter into a war with Russia to defend Ukraine, in addition to the difference about the importance that Ukraine represents for Western allies, as the American diplomat John Herbst, who served as the ambassador of the United States of America in the United States, sees Ukraine for three years: “Russia under the leadership of Putin poses a threat to the United States’ European allies, and that Ukraine is currently the best arena for confronting the Russians.”

As for the importance of Ukraine to Russia, the Ukrainian Republic is an important market for the Russian Federation, in addition to being a transit point for Russian gas lines that deliver Russian gas to Europe, as well as geographical considerations and the fact that Ukraine is a neighbor of Russia, what makes Ukraine the most dangerous neighbor of Russia in terms of geopolitical considerations, is The Russian-Ukrainian border extends along plains and easy terrain with no natural obstacles, which makes the invasion of Russia from the Ukrainian border one of the easiest and closest ways to reach Moscow, and this is what Russia considers a serious threat to its political and military security, and therefore Russian policy Towards Ukraine is based on not allowing any Ukrainian-Western rapprochement, as this poses a threat to Russian security, and therefore the increase in the Ukrainian-Western rapprochement witnessed in the past period may be the main reason for any Russian attempt to invade Ukraine.

The West has two options

Economic sanctions against Russia or military intervention against it, two options for the West in the event of a Russian aggression on Ukrainian lands, as the first option, i.e. sanctions, will not be effective enough to dissuade Russia from its practices towards Ukraine, just as it did not deter it from a quasi-invasion of Ukraine. Crimea and its support for separatists loyal to it in Ukraine in 2014, as the West fears that only sanctions without deterring Russian interference, may encourage Russia to continue its practices to invade other countries in Europe and Central Asia, and its invasion may be much easier for the Russians than the invasion of the neighbor Thus, not responding militarily to Russia may be a European encouragement for Russia to complete its expansionist policies in Europe, at the expense of Western interests, as it could encourage other countries to cross the red lines drawn by the West. In the world, especially with regard to the South China Sea and the island of Taiwan, just as the other option, which is a military response, may also be the last thing the West wishes for, meaning that the two options are the best of them, and therefore the military response will be an option that the West did not want. A day to engage in it again, especially since the United States of America seeks to get rid of the pests of its recent wars in the Middle East, especially after its withdrawal from Afghanistan, and that the European continent is not ready to sacrifice again its security and political and economic stability, which it built after World War II. Therefore, it has neglected all the efforts it has made since 1945 to this day in order to "remove the specter of war".