Written by: Dr. Alejo Vidal Quadras

Professor of Atomic and Nuclear Physics, former Vice President of the European Parliament

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Foreign ministers representing the three European signatories to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal responded with anticipated condemnation this week when the Iranian regime announced that it had resumed uranium enrichment to 20 percent. The move comes nearly a year after Iran abandoned all restrictions it had apparently imposed on uranium enrichment and its nuclear stockpile when the agreement came into force in 2016.

This latest escalation is particularly important because it overtly places Iran's nuclear facilities within only a short technical step from further uranium enrichment to the 90 percent level, which will constitute weapons used in the manufacture of weapons. Moreover, the new enrichment is taking place at a well-known facility in Fordow, which has been selected as a site for such activity because it is built into the side of a mountain as a means of protection from aerial bombardment.

Iran, Fordow fuel enrichment plant

The enrichment site indicates 20 percent that Iran warns of possible retaliation against opponents in other countries. Neither the European countries nor the United States have given any indication that they have an interest in taking concrete steps to prevent Iran from moving forward with its violations. While the United States continues to exert "maximum pressure" through economic sanctions for the time being, its European allies are still largely unprepared to use this strategy.

In their recent statement, the three European signatories said, "We strongly urge Iran to stop enriching uranium by up to 20 percent without delay," adding that they also expect "Iran to return in the enrichment program to the limits agreed upon in [the agreement] and" to refrain from any steps. Another escalation would further shrink the space for effective diplomacy. The international community must now ask the same question that Iran is already asking in response to this statement: "Or what?"

Europe's expectations are reasonably clear, but what is not at all clear is what consequences, if any, the Iranian regime will face if it refuses to meet those expectations. Until this is clarified, the foreign ministers ’statement can only be considered empty words. Words alone cannot be expected to have a tangible effect on the behavior of a regime deeply committed to malicious activities aimed at eliciting concessions from its negotiating partners.

The system has a long history of using this strategy. Shockingly, he has made a lot of gains in the past. However, Western powers have rarely modified their strategies to accommodate this. They have continued to operate on the obviously naive assumption that if they extend a friendly hand to "moderate" elements within the Iranian regime, they will successfully encourage more moderate behaviors that do not threaten Western interests, lands, or lives. Among them are the "moderates", the current president of the Iranian regime, Hassan Rouhani, and its foreign minister, Javad Zarif. Both men held their positions for more than two years before concluding the negotiations that led to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the Iran nuclear deal). The two men also spent all that time promoting and defending the ideological actions and objectives of the "moderate" faction, the "hardliners" associated with the mullah’s guardian jurist Ali Khamenei. Over the past year, Rouhani and Zarif have specifically and repeatedly emphasized their support for this faction's position on the nuclear deal and the violations that render the agreement worthless. This should come as no surprise to Western policymakers. Rouhani's previous career included during his tenure as the country's chief nuclear negotiator, after which he publicly boasted that he and his colleagues thwarted American and European pressure by creating an atmosphere of apparent cooperation, thus leaving Tehran free to pursue progress in certain aspects of its nuclear program that were not under close scrutiny at the time. . Many critics of the Iran nuclear deal fear this same outcome on a much larger scale, and these concerns have been amplified by news that Iran is accelerating its nuclear enrichment.

Whatever the precise consequences of that acceleration, there is a greater risk at hand that stems from the feeling of impunity that is reinforced in Tehran if the regime continues with these kinds of provocations and faces no consequences.

Inevitably, the "hardliners" and "moderates" will work together in support of new provocative activities. And when they face no real consequences - no more economic sanctions, no closures of diplomatic posts, no expansion of coalitions that oppose Iran's regional influence - they will go straight to the next item in that category.

If last week is any indication, Tehran is ready to take these steps very quickly.

On the same day that uranium enrichment was accelerated, the Iranian navy also seized a tanker flying the South Korean flag and held it hostage, apparently in hopes of securing the release of the funds frozen in South Korean banks. This move reminds us of countless other cases of terrorist kidnapping aimed at securing prisoner exchanges or other forms of ransom from foreign opponents. It is also in line with violations of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the nuclear deal), insofar as this agreement is also held hostage - a symbol of the imminent potential for Iran's nuclear weapons capability, which the European Union strives hard to avoid.

Unfortunately, this despair is pointless as it drives the Western world to indifference rather than to take action.

If Iran does not face the consequences of the recent violation, it will only have an additional incentive to keep the issue of nuclear weapons above the heads of its Western adversaries, believing that there is not much to waste and everything to be gained. Worse still, if Europe continues to refuse to specify the consequences of this, the principle of hostage taking by the Iranian regime will be strengthened, and more foreign nationals will fall into the hands of the regime to use as a bargaining chip.