Asmaa Bassiouni - Beth:

After talks that lasted for four hours between Ukrainian and Russian negotiators in Istanbul, the head of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation came out to us to announce his country’s acceptance of neutrality on the condition that there were guarantees from four countries, saying that Israel, Turkey, Poland and Canada might be the guarantor countries.

Meanwhile, Vladimir Medinsky, the chief Russian negotiator in the negotiations with Ukraine, revealed that Moscow had taken two steps towards rapprochement with Ukraine, noting that they concern the political and military aspects.

This came in statements made by Medinsky to reporters at the conclusion of today’s round of negotiations held in Istanbul.

Regarding the political aspect, Medinsky confirmed the possibility of holding a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart, Vladimir Zelensky, not after reaching an agreement between the two countries in all its details, but in conjunction with the initialing of the two countries’ foreign ministers.

As for the military aspect, the other member of the Russian delegation, Alexander Fomin, Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation spoke about him, who announced his ministry’s decision to “drastically” reduce military activity on the Kyiv and Chernigov axes (Northern Ukraine) with the aim of enhancing mutual trust and creating the appropriate conditions for continuing negotiations and reaching an agreement. desired agreement.

Medinsky also revealed that he had obtained a package of written proposals from the Ukrainian delegation during the negotiations, including the following:

1. Declare Ukraine a neutral, non-nuclear state outside of any alliances on a permanent basis under international legal safeguards, and a list of guarantor states will be presented.

2. Security guarantees do not apply to the territory of the Crimea and Donbas, that is, Ukraine abandons the attempt to restore it by military means.

Here, Medinsky pointed out that this proposition reflects Kyiv’s position and does not correspond to Moscow’s position, given that it does not consider Crimea and Donbass to be part of Ukrainian territory in the first place.

3. Ukraine refuses to join military alliances, deploy foreign military bases and units and host military exercises without the consent of the guarantor states, including Russia.

4. Russia is not against Ukraine’s accession to the European Union.

5. Ukraine requests that the decision be finalized in a meeting between the presidents of the two countries.

Medinsky described Ukraine’s proposals as a “constructive step towards a compromise,” adding that Russia would study them.

On March 16, 2022, the Ukrainian presidency announced its rejection of the idea of ​​Kyiv being neutral, and Ukrainian negotiator Mikhailo Podolyak said at the time that “Ukraine is in a state of direct war with Russia now, and coordination can only be ‘Ukrainian’.”

What is neutrality?

Neutrality is the country’s adoption of a neutral stance away from military alliances, and standing away from conflicts and non-interference between the belligerents. The concept of neutrality emerged as one of the means to achieve peace when the conflict between the great powers escalated, and some European countries used it to avoid being torn from a larger country.

What is the fate of the war after the end of negotiations?

Some political researchers believe that Ukraine’s acceptance of neutrality is not a condition for ending the war, but rather it could make Ukraine more vulnerable to abuse than its aggressor neighbor, because Russia lost the credibility of offering guarantees, after the Russians kept saying until the last moment that they had no intention of any invasion plans.

However, Maria Popova, a professor of political science at Canadian McGill University, believes that the West can provide some kind of guarantee by alerting Russia that Ukraine is on the path to membership in the European Union, and therefore if Russia threatens Ukraine again, it will threaten the entire European Union “.

Ukraine’s neutrality will not end the crisis

And whether neutrality will end the crisis or not, Oriel Brown, professor of international relations at the University of Toronto, said that Ukraine’s military neutrality will not be enough for Russia, because Putin aims to leave Zelensky’s government, which he sees as a Nazi government.

Other political researchers have argued that entrenching Ukraine’s neutrality in any deal can help reduce the military threat Moscow expects from it, thus contributing to de-escalation of the conflict.