Monitoring and Analysis by BETH News Agency

🛑 A statement by a member of the Iranian parliament is not a minor detail… but rather a symbolic warning with global weight.

🔹 What does this actually mean?

The Strait of Hormuz is the artery of global energy:

Around 20% of the world’s oil exports pass through it (more than 17 million barrels per day).

It is the only exit route from the Arabian Gulf to global markets.

Any disruption means paralysis in energy flow, and thus a direct shake to the global economy.

⚠️ Is this just a threat… or a real decision?

The most likely scenario now: A calculated strategic threat.
But it's not mere bluff. Using “Hormuz” as a bargaining chip is a recurrent Iranian tactic, though not activated since the 1980s, for one clear reason:

He who cuts the energy artery… strangles himself first.

The evidence:

The statement did not come from the Supreme Leader or the IRGC, but from a parliamentarian, which places it in the context of testing reactions rather than a decision.

No real naval movements have been observed indicating imminent closure.

No urgent warnings from American or British naval forces to vessels, which suggests no immediate danger.

🔥 But what if Iran actually closes the Strait?

1. Immediate global shock:

Oil prices could jump to $150 per barrel or more within hours.

Shipping companies would halt operations, and maritime insurance would multiply tenfold.

The global economy would enter a chaotic inflation wave, hitting markets and currencies hard.

2. Direct international military response:

The U.S., U.K., and France would intervene immediately under a naval coalition to "protect global navigation".

Attacks would begin on Iranian boats, and likely airstrikes on naval bases in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm.

3. Iran would lose more than it gains:

Its oil and gas exports would also stop—even to China and India.

The international community would unite against it, including countries like India and Turkey who are not typically adversarial.

💥 Can Iran bear such consequences?

Iran knows that closing the Strait is an economic nuclear button—and if it pushes it, even its allies may turn against it.

Its already crippled economy cannot withstand a new level of isolation.

The Iranian street is silently boiling.

A decision of this scale may be the straw that reveals the regime’s fragility.

🤔 Then why the threat now?

Because the Iranian regime feels that:

Israel has fully exposed it, targeting its leaders and reactors.

The U.S. is no longer deterring it, and is implicitly covering the Israeli operation.

Internal unrest may begin to shake the regime from within.

Thus… this may be a sign of strategic desperation—or a last display of strength before collapse or repositioning.

🧠 A Symbolic Reading – from BETH:

“He who threatens to close the strait… is the one who feels the choke is within.
But history does not forgive those who weaponize energy against the world.”