Beirut - Marwa Shaheen - Beth:

After the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Representative Gibran Bassil, spoke in a press conference held last week about “political consequences” and measures that the Free Patriotic Movement will take in response to Hezbollah’s actions against the national movement; The Lebanese political circles started talking about the crack and collapse of the alliance between Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement, which is known as the Mar Mikhael Understanding.

Before we analyze this information and read its repercussions on the future political situation in Lebanon, we must mention the essence of this understanding, and what led to this crack that afflicted this alliance after 16 years of being the strongest political bloc on the Lebanese scene. Which drew the shape of Lebanon and its internal and external policies after the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

What is the Mar Mikhael agreement, and what does this understanding involve?

On February 6, 2006, the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, Michel Aoun, signed a memorandum of understanding with the Secretary-General of the Lebanese Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, at St. Michael's Church, in the capital, Beirut. The memorandum discussed the differences and common goals of the two parties, and this document included many substantive issues that were agreed upon, the most important of which are:

 Consensual democracy, i.e. the sharing of government and powers by consensus between Lebanese parties and sects, the proportional election law, which allows for the greatest degree of political representation for minorities, and Lebanese relations with neighboring countries, especially Syria and Palestine, in addition to the missing Lebanese in Syrian prisons and the Lebanese in “Israel,” and the Lebanese sum up this understanding by saying that it means: “Give me the chair of the presidency and take the country.”

What led to the rupture of this understanding... and made Bassil, who is subject to US sanctions and unwanted by most of the Lebanese because of his "bullying" of Hezbollah, to threaten to end the "Mar Mikhael" alliance?

It all depends on the elections, as the Free Patriotic Movement submitted an appeal to the Lebanese Constitutional Council to vote for the Lebanese in diaspora for only six out of 128 deputies in the Lebanese Parliament, in addition to invalidating the date of the elections, so there were no judges affiliated with Hezbollah in the Council. However, they voted against this appeal, which Basil considered a slap to the Free Patriotic Movement by its closest ally, Hezbollah.

Basil's comment

 Bassil commented on this in a tweet on Twitter, saying: “What happened is a setback for the right and not for the movement, and it is also a setback for the spread. It will have political consequences."

Commenting on the same matter, Bassil added in a press conference held last week, saying: "Today, the Constitutional Council was overthrown and suspended because the appeal did not fall, but no decision was issued in it," considering that what happened was "a blow to the charter and the authority of the President of the Republic in Article 57 and an additional fall of the Constitution." which we are trying to preserve.

Does this mean the death of the Aounist alliance with Hezbollah, 16 years after its birth?

There is no doubt that the slap that the Free Patriotic Movement received from its ally Hezbollah will have a great impact on the relations between the two allies, but the question that arises in this case is whether this slap will constitute the final bullet for the political alliance that has shaped Lebanon’s policy for 16 years, and In this context, Dr. Muhammad Ezz El-Din, a lecturer in Lebanese constitutional law, says that the national movement still desperately needs Hezbollah in the upcoming elections, especially since the economic crisis that Lebanon is experiencing has led to a decline in the popular funds of the Free Patriotic Movement due to what was The reign of current President Michel Aoun, the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, has had an impact on the deterioration of the economic and social situation in Lebanon, as the Lebanese consider that Aoun and his son-in-law Gibran Bassil handed Lebanon over to Hezbollah in exchange for the presidency, and therefore any elections that the Free Patriotic Movement fights alone will lose him many seats. Parliamentary and thus will lose his authority in the government and ministerial and administrative authorities.

Commentary of the National Movement

As for the Free Patriotic Movement’s comment on this news of the dissolution of the alliance between the Aounist movement and Hezbollah, the Lebanese MP and member of the Strong Lebanon bloc (ie the Free Patriotic Movement bloc) Simon Abi Ramia confirmed that “there is no death or end to the Mar Mikhael agreement with Hezbollah.” .

Abi Ramia added; The head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, will clarify the circumstances in this regard in a press conference that will be held in the early days of the new year 2022, and said, "We have discussed it internally until then, and certainly there is tension, reproach and blame on Hezbollah, and perhaps more than That is, but so far there has been no announcement of the death of the Mar Mikhael understanding.”

Expected actions from the National Movement

And as for the measures that the Free Patriotic Movement could take, Abi Ramia added, “Basil will announce them on the second of next January, but the strikes that took place and touched the essence of the Lebanese contract and partnership, make us consider that this system is over, and we ask legitimate questions about the regime’s ability to continue. We may be at the gates of a new system and contract, after the collapse at the level of institutions and the striking of the essence of the charter and partnership that were among the main pillars of this system, and we must move to strengthening citizenship and to a productive and effective system that produces a majority of control and opposition that opposes, so we cannot continue with this formula and the system. Himself".

This means that the Free Patriotic Movement is seriously considering amending the agreement to obtain more gains, which may compensate for what it lost in the people due to the resentment of many Christians belonging to the Free Patriotic Movement for the movement’s alliance with Hezbollah, which they consider a terrorist party seeking to hijack Lebanon’s sovereignty and make it a part From the axis of the so-called “resistance” and thus making it a part of Wilayat al-Faqih, which the Secretary-General of Hezbollah does not miss an opportunity to confirm that he is a soldier in Wilayat al-Faqih and that his entire loyalty and subordination belongs to what he calls “the Islamic Republic of Iran,” except for what he lost. The Free Patriotic Movement internationally, as Western countries began to view the Aounist movement and its leader, Gibran Bassil, as “Iranian arms” affiliated with the Iranian leader. Republic.

The possibility of ending the alliance

As for the possibility of ending the alliance permanently, this remains subject to the development of political talks between the two allies, and in all cases, any termination or modification of this alliance will have significant effects on the internal and external Lebanese policy, especially the Lebanese-Syrian relations, and most importantly, it will be It has a great impact on Lebanon’s relationship with its Arab surroundings, especially the Gulf states, whose relations with Lebanon have been strained a lot in the past years as a result of Hezbollah and the Aounist movement loyal to the party controlling the Lebanese state’s joints and its foreign policies, and this can be discussed at length in future reports.