Trump halts the strikes but does not end the war, while Tehran negotiates through Oman before the Netanyahu meeting determines the direction of the next phase

BETH | B

U.S. President Donald Trump directed the military not to carry out any new strikes against Iran, ending a series of daily attacks that lasted nearly two weeks, without declaring a ceasefire or retreating from the option of a large-scale military operation. Details of the directive

Trump said he had not made a final decision on expanding the offensive, noting that Tehran was showing “greater seriousness” in its talks with Washington.

The U.S. president presented Iran with two choices:

Reach an agreement or face a “far more severe” level of strikes.

He confirmed that U.S. forces were ready to act and that the suspension of the strikes did not mean a retreat, but rather gave the talks an opportunity to test whether Tehran was prepared to implement U.S. demands.

In response, Iranian army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia warned that the war would expand geographically if the United States resumed its strikes. He said the confrontation had already extended to Bab al-Mandab and that the Iranian response could include U.S. sites in the Gulf and Jordan.

The warning comes ahead of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Washington and his meeting with Trump at the White House on Tuesday, amid expectations that the future of operations against Iran will be at the forefront of their discussions.

An Omani Track Moves Forward

The Iranian Foreign Ministry announced that Tehran and Muscat had held several rounds of talks on Friday and Saturday at the level of deputy foreign ministers.

The discussions focused on principles and operational mechanisms for managing safe maritime navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, while taking into consideration what Iran described as the sovereign rights of the two coastal states.

Tehran said progress had been made and that technical and political consultations would continue, but acknowledged that there had been no change so far in the status of navigation through the strait.

The wording of the statement reveals that the negotiations have moved beyond general discussion of de-escalation and are beginning to approach the operational details:

Who will manage maritime transit?

What are the security guarantees?

And how can Iran save face without turning the strait into a tool of extortion or a threat to vessels?

A Pause, Not a Truce

One night without strikes does not mean the war is over.

The U.S. naval blockade remains in place, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has not returned to normal, and the Houthi front has opened an additional corridor of conflict in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab.

U.S. forces have not withdrawn, and plans for broader strikes remain ready if Trump concludes that Iran is using the negotiations to gain time.

The suspension of the strikes may be the result of two combined factors:

The emergence of diplomatic progress worth testing.

And Washington’s need to review the cost of the campaign, its stockpiles of defensive munitions, the risks of an expanding war, and rising energy prices.

The decision therefore appears closer to a pause for pressure than the beginning of peace.

Trump stopped the fire to see Iran’s offer, not to remove his weapon from the table.

Will Iran Sign?

The most likely expectation is that Iran will first accept a limited agreement concerning navigation through the Strait of Hormuz before moving toward a comprehensive political and military agreement.

The format of negotiations with Oman provides Tehran with a suitable way out:

Reopening the passage not as a direct response to U.S. strikes, but as an understanding between the two coastal states to regulate navigation and protect sovereignty.

This formula could help the Iranian leadership present the agreement domestically as a regulation of the strait, rather than a surrender to the United States.

The suspension of the strikes also gives Iranian diplomats an argument to present to the military establishment:

The U.S. tactical retreat has been achieved, and negotiations can now proceed without the signature appearing to have been made under direct bombardment.

But the window is short.

Netanyahu’s visit could push Trump to raise his conditions or return to the military option if Israel provides information indicating that Iran is using the pause to rebuild its capabilities or redeploy its weapons.

What Does the Guard Want?

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps does not sign diplomatic agreements, but it can obstruct them or bring about their collapse in practice.

The Strait of Hormuz is not an ordinary negotiating card for the Guard. It is one of its most important sources of military and political influence. Relinquishing control over navigation without a clear return would mean losing the leverage that brought Washington and the world to the negotiating table.

The Guard will therefore seek to achieve three objectives:

Preserve a direct Iranian role in managing the strait.

Obtain guarantees preventing the continuation of the blockade and attacks.

Present any agreement as recognition of Iran’s rights, not as the result of its military defeat.

If those objectives can be achieved, the Guard may accept the understanding and present it as a victory for steadfastness.

But if it insists on retaining the right to threaten vessels and impose restrictions whenever it chooses, Washington will not accept an agreement that recreates the same crisis.

At that point, the Guard would transform from a force defending Iran’s negotiating position into one preventing its rescue.

Before Iran Is Ruined

The problem facing Tehran is that time is no longer working in its favor.

Each day of delay means:

Further military losses.

A continuing blockade and disrupted exports.

A rising cost of war for society and the economy.

And an increasing possibility that operations will move to more sensitive targets inside Iran.

The Guard may believe that continued threats increase the value of its leverage, but a negotiating card loses its value if the state using it burns.

Accepting an agreement today could be presented as a limited concession that preserves some influence.

Accepting it after a more severe wave of strikes would appear as submission to the same conditions after paying a higher price.

The question is therefore no longer:

Can Iran continue the war?

But:

What will remain of Iran if it does?

Possible Outcomes

The next phase faces three paths:

A Rapid Maritime Understanding

Iran and Oman agree on a mechanism guaranteeing the safe passage of vessels, and Washington accepts it as a basis for resuming broader negotiations.

This is the most likely path because it gives all parties a temporary way out without declaring victory or defeat.

A Return to Limited Strikes

The details falter, or the Guard or one of its allies carries out a new attack, prompting the United States to resume strikes against maritime and missile sites and command centers.

This path keeps the door to negotiations open, but raises the cost of reaching an agreement.

A Large-Scale U.S. Operation

The Omani track fails, and the Trump-Netanyahu meeting produces a decision to expand the target list and strike what remains of Iran’s capabilities.

This is the most dangerous path because it could push Iran to expand its attacks on bases, maritime passages, and facilities across the region, turning the threat of a regional war into a complete reality.

What Comes Next?

Tehran is showing greater seriousness because it now realizes that the suspension of strikes may be its final opportunity to sign before the war moves to a more severe level.

But genuine seriousness will not be measured by statements. It will be measured by three steps:

The restoration of safe navigation.

An end to attacks on vessels and neighboring countries.

And acceptance of a mechanism that can be implemented and guaranteed.

Trump, meanwhile, has used the pause to place the decision inside Tehran:

Either the diplomats reopen the strait through an agreement that preserves what can still be saved for Iran, or the Guard continues using it until the state is left with no card except accepting the same conditions after greater ruin.

On Day 145, the U.S. aircraft fell silent.

But silence is not peace.

It is the time before the signature—or before the next strike.