BETH | B

The United States continues to carry out military strikes inside Iran for the sixth consecutive night, as the operations enter their seventh day. Washington says the strikes are focused on degrading Iran’s military capabilities, while diplomatic efforts continue to prevent the conflict from spreading across the region.

Israel expects the military confrontation between the United States and Iran to escalate over the coming week, amid reports that Washington is preparing a new target list inside Iran that may include power stations and electricity generation and transmission facilities.

Assessments discussed during Israeli security and political meetings indicate that US operations are likely to expand. Targeting the electricity sector could be intended to exploit a vulnerability affecting Iran’s ability to operate the state, its economy, and its military facilities.

An Israeli official confirmed that the country is prepared for various scenarios that could have repercussions for Israel. However, Israeli assessments still suggest that the confrontation will remain confined to Washington and Tehran for the time being.

According to these assessments, Iran is avoiding extending its attacks from the Gulf region to Israel, recognizing that opening an additional front could provoke a broader response and intensify the military pressure against it.

Neither the United States nor Iran has confirmed the reports concerning the new target list or the nature of the facilities that may be targeted.

In Tehran, the conflict has exposed a widening division within decision-making circles between a hardline faction pushing for further escalation and tighter control over the Strait of Hormuz, and a pragmatic faction warning that continued strikes, sanctions, and economic pressure could lead to a deterioration that would be difficult to contain.

The latter faction supports seeking a political way out that would ease the pressure on the country, as Iran’s room for maneuver narrows between preserving its remaining leverage and preventing the war from draining the state from within.

Analysis

From Degrading Military Power to Exhausting the State

If US strikes expand to power stations and electricity generation and transmission facilities, the confrontation will have entered a different phase.

The objective would no longer be limited to destroying a weapon or disabling a military base. It would extend to affecting the Iranian state’s ability to function. Electricity is connected to factories, communications, transportation, public services, and military facilities. It also directly affects the daily lives of citizens.

Pressure would therefore shift from striking the instruments of confrontation to targeting the environment that enables Iran to sustain it.

Targeting this sector, however, carries risks that extend beyond military calculations. The closer the strikes move toward civilian infrastructure, the greater the human and economic cost, the wider the potential for disorder, and the more difficult it becomes to contain the consequences of the war.

A War Over Iran’s Decision

The US objective may not be to overthrow the Iranian regime or destroy Iran entirely, but to change its decision from within.

Sustained military pressure leaves the Iranian leadership facing two costly options:

Either continue escalating and use the Strait of Hormuz, inviting further strikes and sanctions.

Or seek a political way out that could be interpreted within the regime as a retreat under pressure.

The current confrontation therefore appears increasingly like a war over the will behind Iran’s decision. Washington is attempting to make the cost of refusal higher than the cost of acceptance, while Tehran is trying to demonstrate that it can raise the price of US pressure for Washington and its allies.

The More Dangerous Division

The division inside Tehran is not about whether a crisis exists, but about the least dangerous way out of it.

Hardliners view Hormuz as the instrument capable of transferring the pain to the rest of the world. They believe that retreating now could mean losing one of Iran’s most important means of deterrence.

Pragmatists, however, fear that the same instrument could turn into a blockade against Iran itself. Disrupting the strait would damage Iranian exports and regional relations while giving Washington further justification to expand its military operations.

The paradox is that Hormuz may be Tehran’s strongest card, but it could also become the most dangerous one for Iran itself.

Why Is Israel Keeping Its Distance?

Iran’s decision not to target Israel so far does not mean that Israel is outside the war. Rather, it reflects an Iranian effort to prevent the conflict from expanding to another front.

Bringing Israel directly into the confrontation could unite hesitant parties behind Washington, broaden the target list, and provide additional political cover for military operations.

Tehran is therefore attempting to keep the conflict within its US-Iranian scope, while Israel prepares for the possible collapse of these boundaries if Iran concludes that its instruments in the Gulf are no longer sufficient.

The Decisive Moment

After seven consecutive days of strikes, the question is no longer how many targets the United States has hit, but whether Washington has moved from improving its negotiating position to attempting to impose its terms by exhausting the Iranian state.

If electricity and energy facilities are formally added to the target list, the coming week could become a decisive test:

Will mounting pressure drive Tehran toward a settlement?

Or will it convince the hardliners that the time has come to use Hormuz more aggressively?

The strikes may weaken Iran’s capabilities, but they cannot guarantee a change in its decision. Iran, meanwhile, may be able to widen the crisis, but it cannot guarantee control over what follows.

The confrontation is now approaching one of its most dangerous stages, because the two sides are no longer seeking merely to inflict pain on each other. Each is trying to force the other to make the very decision it refuses to make.