BETH – Monitoring & Analysis | Friday, June 13, 2025

Israel announced at dawn today that it had carried out a precise and comprehensive preemptive operation targeting strategic Iranian sites — most notably nuclear facilities and IRGC (Revolutionary Guard) headquarters — in what Tel Aviv has named “A People Like a Lion.”

The attack, conducted by the Israeli Air Force and Mossad, struck residential areas, military sites, and nuclear infrastructure, triggering powerful explosions and fires across Tehran, Natanz, Isfahan, and other cities.

The Israeli military declared that it had “completed the first phase” of its assault, involving dozens of fighter jets striking military and nuclear targets across Iran.

🔺 Five waves of airstrikes were reportedly launched in this first phase, with expectations that further waves will follow.

🔥 Key Developments on the Ground

Direct Israeli airstrike on the Natanz nuclear facility, with subsequent explosions confirmed.

IRGC Commander-in-Chief Hossein Salami reportedly killed, according to Iranian state media.

Ali Shamkhani, top advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, severely wounded.

Reports of the assassination of top nuclear scientists, including Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi and Fereydoon Abbasi, alongside the killing of General Gholam Ali Rashid.

Targeted strikes in a Tehran district known to house senior IRGC leadership (according to Israeli Army Radio).

State of emergency declared in Israel, including closure of airspace and redirection of all flights.

Iran closes its airspace, suspending operations at Mehrabad and Tehran International airports.

Iraq shuts down its airspace completely, suspending all air traffic.

Iranian air defense systems activated, with full military alert announced across all provinces.

🛰️ Mossad Hits Deep

In parallel with the aerial bombardment, Mossad launched coordinated sabotage and cyber operations inside Iran, reportedly disrupting telecommunications, surveillance systems, and vital energy infrastructure — according to Israeli sources.

🛑 Cautious U.S. Position

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued an official statement:

“Israel acted alone. We were not part of the strikes. Our priority now is the protection of our forces in the region.”

He added that while Washington was informed in advance, it did not participate in the operation.

📈 Immediate Economic Impact

Oil prices jumped over 10% — an increase of more than $8 per barrel.

Gold hit its highest level since 2022.

Asian markets opened sharply lower, amid rising fears of a regional war.

🤝 The Fate of U.S.–Iran Nuclear Talks

The sixth round of nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran was scheduled for Sunday in Muscat. But Israel’s airstrikes have fundamentally shifted the equation.

🎯 BETH Analysis:
The talks are effectively frozen, even if no formal announcement has been made.

Tehran will not negotiate while its leadership bleeds, and international pressure won’t suffice to revive diplomacy overnight.

Oman: Blamed Israel for the escalation.

Jordan: Declared its airspace off-limits and rejected becoming a battleground for any party.

🔮 Where Is This Headed?

A direct Iranian response is expected within hours, possibly involving ballistic missiles and drone attacks from multiple fronts — including Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.

Indirect retaliation via Iranian proxies targeting U.S. or Israeli interests — such as Hezbollah, PMF (Iraq), and the Houthis.

Widening of the conflict, drawing in new players or escalating beyond Iran–Israel.

Intelligence warfare escalation, including assassinations, infrastructure disruption, and cyberattacks.

Urgent international mediation, with China, Russia, or Europe possibly intervening to prevent a full-scale regional war.

🧠 BETH’s Final Insight

This Israeli operation did not just target nuclear facilities — it shattered the diplomatic track itself.

Iran will respond, but how, when, and for what purpose will reflect a strategy of "deterrence without full-scale explosion."

As for Washington, it must now redefine its role — caught between a defiant Israel and a wounded Iran.